African Journals Online
Studies in Economics and Econometrics

Volume 27, Issue 2, 2003
ABSTRACTS

The macro-economic impact of HIV / Aids in South Africa

Ellis, L.L.; Smit, B.W.; Laubscher, P.

Abstract: The macro-economic impact of HIV / AIDS in South Africa over the next 10 to 15 years is investigated by means of a macro-econometric model of the South African economy. The analysis is based on a set of HIV / AIDS inclusive and exclusive demographic projections for South Africa for the period up to 2015. The paper provides a detailed description of the various macro-economic channels of impact, the assumptions required to generate the model simulations, the macro-economic results and a sensitivity analysis of the main assumptions. The results suggest that although HIV / AIDS is expected to have a marked impact on macro-economic conditions in South Africa, the impact is not likely to be devastating to longer-term growth and development.

The competitiveness of South African manufacturing: a spatial view

Suleman, A.; Naude, W.A.

Abstract: Given the emphasis on international competitiveness in the manufacturing development strategies of the South African government, the purpose of this paper is to identify the potentially competitive manufacturing clusters on a spatial level in South Africa. Taking South Africa's nine provinces as the level of spatial analysis, this paper uses export specialisation and output specialisation ratios to obtain an idea of the competitiveness and comparative advantages of the various sectors. The results will allow national policy-makers to identify the spatial distribution of competitive manufacturing sectors across South Africa and allow provincial policy-makers to focus their policies on the manufacturing sectors with the most potential to develop into competitive industrial clusters.

Towards Africa's global integration: trade, investment and development

Botha, J.

Abstract: Through NEPAD African leaders express a commitment to accountable and transparent political, financial, fiscal and monetary management in the absence of national and regional conflict, while calling on the international community and African and international private sectors to partnership with African governments in their development endeavours. The success of the initiative relies on the strength of only three supportive pillars namely: the sustained political visionary commitment from Africa's leaders, greater investments to the continent and trade access for Africa's products, and active participation from the private sector. It is also imperative that sub-regional strategies take precedence in ensuring NEPAD's long-term success.

The demographic theory of unemployment and underemployment in developing communities

Sadie, J.L.

Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to find the ultimate determinants - that is, behind and beyond the customary supply and demand forces as revealed in the wage labour market (WLM) - of the phenomenon of large scale unemployment and / or underemployment to which developing communities are prone. The answer proffered here is that they are located in demographic forces which are responsible for human power quantity outrunning human power quality. The latter - as required for economic growth and development - is shown to be function of the economic handicaps consequent upon a high level of human fertility.

The efficient market hypothesis as a martingale

Abraham, H.

Abstract: It is well known that the efficient market hypothesis and a martingale are closely related. This paper studies the use of a martingale as a substitute for the efficient market hypothesis in a monetary overlapping generations economy where individuals maintain the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility proposition. Within this economic framework two results are derived. (1) A martingale is a direct consequence of equilibrium conditions in the optimisation of individuals' expected utilities. (2) Learning is precluded in a successive transition from one state of equilibrium to the next. These two results accord fully with the definition of a martingale.